Since launch, Motio’s main public indicator has been the real median household income series: a key timely measure of the economic well-being of U.S. households. That remains our headline series. Beginning with this release, however, we are presenting it in a new way: as a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted monthly estimates.

This change is designed to make the public series easier to interpret. Monthly household income estimates contain valuable information, but they can also be volatile. Rather than encouraging users to overread isolated month-to-month movements, the three-month trailing average provides a clearer view of the dynamics of U.S. median household income.

At the same time, we are expanding the set of public indicators available to public users. In addition to the headline real median household income series, Motio is now introducing public series for:

• nominal median household income;
• year-over-year changes in real and nominal median household income; and
• the ratio between the 75th and 25th percentiles of household income.

Together, these changes mark an important step in the development of Motio’s household income data. They move our public offering beyond a single headline number and toward a broader, clearer, and more useful view of household income conditions in the United States.

Why we are introducing a three-month average

Economic data released at a monthly frequency often involve a tradeoff between timeliness and volatility. Monthly estimates can provide an early signal of changing conditions, but any single monthly value may also reflect temporary noise, sampling variability, or short-lived disruptions.

This is especially true for household income. Household income is shaped by labor market conditions, hours worked, job changes, household composition, inflation, transfers, and other factors. When measured every month using survey data, the series can move in ways that are informative but also uneven.

For that reason, Motio’s public headline series will now be presented as a three-month moving (trailing) average of the underlying seasonally adjusted monthly estimates. The goal is not to make the data less timely. The goal is to make the signal clearer.

The three-month average smooths some month-to-month volatility while preserving the ability to track recent developments. It allows users to focus less on whether household income moved up or down in one particular month and more on the broader pattern: whether income is rising, weakening, or stabilizing; whether momentum is strengthening or fading; and where the current level stands relative to recent history.

In short, the new public headline series is designed to support a more meaningful interpretation of household income: one centered on level, direction, and momentum.

A broader set of public household income indicators

This release also introduces several new public series that complement the headline real median household income measure.

Nominal median household income shows median household income measured in current dollars, before adjusting for inflation. This series helps users distinguish between changes in household income measured in current dollars and changes in inflation-adjusted income.

Year-over-year changes in real and nominal median household income show how household income compares with the same period one year earlier. These measures provide a useful way to track changes over a longer horizon and reduce the risk of placing too much weight on one-month movements.

The 75th/25th percentile ratio provides a simple measure of income dispersion. It compares household income near the upper part of the distribution with household income near the lower part of the distribution. A higher ratio indicates a wider gap between these two points in the distribution, while a lower ratio indicates a narrower gap.

Each of these series adds a different perspective. The real median series remains the headline measure. The nominal median series shows how household income is evolving in current dollars. The year-over-year measures show the pace of change over a 12-month horizon. The 75th/25th percentile ratio offers a window into income dispersion below and above the median.

Together, they provide a more complete public view of household income conditions in the United States.

Updating our seasonal adjustment approach

Behind these public-facing changes, Motio is also updating its seasonal adjustment method.

Seasonal adjustment is a standard statistical procedure used to remove recurring within-year patterns from monthly economic data. Many economic measures vary throughout the year for reasons that are largely seasonal or calendar-related. Removing those recurring patterns makes it easier to interpret changes over time.

Until now, Motio’s seasonally adjusted series relied on an ARIMA-based X-13 seasonal adjustment specification. Beginning with this release, we are using an automatic X-11 seasonal adjustment approach.

This methodological update affects the seasonally adjusted versions of the Motio household income series. It does not change the underlying household income concept, the source data, or the non-seasonally adjusted estimates. It changes the way recurring seasonal patterns are removed from the monthly data.

Importantly, the main story told by the series has not changed. Since 2010, U.S. real median household income shows a recovery from the 2008–09 recession followed by relatively strong growth through 2020. The pandemic period remains clearly visible in the data, and the post-pandemic pattern continues to show a prolonged period of stagnation through mid-2023, a moderate recovery through mid-2024, relative stagnation through early 2025, and faster growth since then. The updated seasonal adjustment approach refines the monthly path of the series, but it does not alter the broad historical interpretation of U.S. real median household income dynamics over this period.

The updated approach gives us a more responsive monthly seasonally adjusted series. That monthly series is analytically valuable, especially for users who want to examine recent movements in more detail. At the same time, greater responsiveness can also mean greater month-to-month volatility.

That is why Motio’s public series will emphasize the three-month trailing average. The underlying monthly seasonally adjusted series provides a timely foundation, while the public three-month average offers a clearer and more stable signal for general interpretation.

A Clearer Public Signal

The purpose of this release is to improve both the statistical foundation and the public presentation of Motio’s household income indicators.

The updated seasonal adjustment approach provides a more responsive monthly foundation. The new public three-month average makes the headline series easier to interpret. The expanded set of public indicators adds context across real income, nominal income, year-over-year changes, and income dispersion.

Together, these changes support a clearer reading of household income conditions in the United States.

The principle is simple: timely data are most useful when the signal is disciplined, comparable, and clear.

Going forward, Motio’s public household income series will place less emphasis on isolated month-to-month movements and more emphasis on the level, direction, and momentum of household income over time.

On August 7, 2025, Stephen Moore, Senior Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, presented monthly household income figures at the White House alongside President Trump (video; charts). Moore described the data as “never seen before,” claimed it came from unpublished Census Bureau sources, and reported that from January through June 2025, real median household income for “the average American family” (sic) had risen by $1,174. He also compared changes in real household income across the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles between the first terms of Presidents Trump and Biden.

The appearance of monthly median household income estimates in such a high-profile political setting highlights both the public interest in timely measures of household economic well-being and the importance of clarity about how such estimates are produced.

Monthly household income estimates are not new — they were first introduced in 2011 by Sentier Research, which demonstrated how Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata could be used to produce robust monthly series. Sentier’s series was widely cited until the firm ceased operations in February 2020. At Motio Research, we have been producing such estimates since December 2023, building on Sentier’s work and incorporating methodological improvements that enhance stability and predictive performance. In this post, I compare our results with those presented at the White House, outline our methodology, and offer context on interpretation, prediction, and transparency.

What the Numbers Show — and What They Don’t

Moore’s reported $1,174 gain appears to represent the difference in real median household income between June 2025 and December 2024. By comparison, our seasonally adjusted, preliminary estimates show a smaller increase of $285 (0.34%), from $83,395 to $83,680. This equals an average monthly growth of 0.06% in early 2025, less than half the 0.16% rate of early 2024. While the growth of real median household income has been relatively weak during President Biden’s administration, the numbers for the first half of 2025 do not show extraordinary gains of the magnitude suggested by Moore’s estimates (see chart below).

Moore did not disclose the source of the data underlying his presentation. In a personal communication on August 11, he stated that his team had developed their own method and intended to release the full details within the following week. While details still remain to be seen, it is clear that his estimates are based on CPS microdata — the same public dataset employed by Sentier in the past and by Motio today.

It is also important to clarify how “monthly” household income estimates should be interpreted. Each estimate reflects household income reported over the prior 12 months, but because of the CPS sample rotation, the data in any given month actually combine four overlapping 12-month reference periods, effectively spanning up to 15 months. They are not measures of income earned within a single month. For example, the June 2025 estimate reflects incomes reported from April 2024 through June 2025. This means that the June 2025 figure still incorporates a substantial portion of income earned during President Biden’s last year in office. Month-to-month changes therefore capture shifts in overlapping twelve-month windows, rather than sudden changes in household finances.

Producing Monthly Household Income Estimates from CPS Microdata

The official U.S. Census Bureau estimates of median household income are published annually in September, covering the previous calendar year. They are based on the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is designed specifically to collect detailed income data.

However, the monthly CPS — the main U.S. labor force survey — also includes a question on total income over the past twelve months, with responses recorded in a set of income intervals rather than exact dollar amounts. This makes it possible to produce valid monthly estimates of annual household income, even though the survey is not designed primarily for this purpose.

The consulting firm Sentier Research, led by two former senior Census Bureau officials, pioneered this approach in 2011, demonstrating that CPS microdata could be used to produce reliable monthly series of median household income. Sentier’s series was widely cited by national media and policymakers until the firm ceased operations in February 2020.

Motio Research builds directly on Sentier’s methodology, adopting its core design while incorporating several improvements that enhance the series’ stability and predictive performance. These improvements include refined income imputation methods, inflation adjustments at the microdata level, systematic benchmarking to Census annual estimates, and seasonal adjustment performed with the Census Bureau’s X-13ARIMA-SEATS program.

Interpreting 2020 — A Statistical Artifact

The chart presented by Moore at the White House included a dashed line in 2020, along with a note clarifying that the anomaly was due to nonresponse bias during the first months of the Covid pandemic. The language in this note is very similar to what we include in our own releases, and the period covered — March through October — is identical. Moore nevertheless disregarded both the dashed line and the accompanying note in his own chart, and treated the 2020 “peak” as though it reflected an actual economic event.

In reality, the sharp rise and fall in household income in 2020 was a statistical artifact caused by nonresponse bias in the CPS: lower-income households were less likely to respond, artificially raising measured median income. This bias is well documented and should be considered when using the series for historical comparisons.

Distributional Estimates and Inequality

As part of his White House presentation, Moore also showed comparisons of real household income at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles between President Trump’s first term and President Biden’s term to date. His charts indicated that gains were larger at all percentiles under Trump, with the 25th percentile showing losses under Biden, the median essentially flat, and the 75th percentile increasing.

While the framing of these results was political, the general patterns in his charts are broadly consistent with what our own percentile series — introduced in June 2024 — has shown. Since their launch, we have documented in press releases and LinkedIn posts that the gap between the 75th and 25th percentiles increased after Covid. The 75th percentile recovered to pre-Covid levels much earlier than the median, while the 25th percentile only reached its pre-Covid peak in mid-2024, lagging behind the broader recovery. And as the chart above shows, median household income has grown more slowly in recent years than during the latter part of President Obama’s second term and the pre-Covid years of President Trump’s first term.

On Prediction

In an interview with The Washington Post, Moore said that his team had “devised a new model to use Census Bureau monthly data surveys to predict future releases of national income data,” and added: “This is going to be a big deal for us because no one else has just figured out how to do this.” Washington Post, August 7, 2025.

As noted earlier, monthly household income estimates have existed since 2011. While Sentier Research pioneered the method, to our knowledge it never used the series to forecast the Census Bureau’s official annual median household income figures. Motio Research began doing so in 2024, publishing our forecasts months ahead of the official release.

In May 2024, we projected a 6.7% increase in nominal median household income for 2023 — corresponding to a 2.6% real gain, the first since 2019. When the Census released its 2023 estimates in September, the official figures fell within our projected range (see blog post). For 2024, we project a 1.6% increase in nominal median household income, which translates into a 1.0% decline in real terms. The Census will release the official 2024 estimates next month.

Why Transparency Matters

Timely indicators of household income are valuable for assessing economic conditions and informing policy debates. When such figures are presented in political contexts, it is essential that their sources and methods are open to scrutiny. Without methodological transparency, it is difficult to evaluate whether differences in reported results reflect real economic changes or differences in data processing.

At Motio Research, our goal is to provide a consistent, reproducible, and transparent measure of monthly household income trends. Detailed methodological documentation and an interactive chart of the Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index are available at motioresearch.com/household-income-series.

Ultimately, what matters is not just the numbers themselves, but the clarity of the methods used to produce them. Household income is too important a measure of economic well-being to be reduced to political talking points. Reliable, transparent estimates allow us to understand how U.S. households are truly faring over time.

The chart below shows, for the first time, year-over-year changes in our monthly median household income estimates that:
1. Include both real and nominal series, and
2. Are not seasonally adjusted.

Key takeaways from the chart:

● After the Great Recession, real median household income resumed growth in 2013, several years following the recession’s official end. This aligns with annual Census estimates, which indicate that real median household incomes began growing again in 2013, after declining from 2008-2011 and stagnating in 2012.

● A period of robust growth in median household incomes began in 2015, driven by accelerated growth in nominal incomes (averaging 3.5% year-over-year in 2015) and historically low inflation. Between 2015 and 2019, nominal and real median household incomes expanded at average annual rates of 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively—a household income boom period.

● Although the Covid pandemic disrupted CPS income data collection between March and October 2020, Census estimates confirm median household incomes declined that year. After the brief Covid recession, median household incomes began recovering sooner than historical patterns would suggest. Nominal household incomes surged in 2022, restoring real income growth. However, historically high inflation soon eroded these gains, leading to monthly year-over-year contractions in real median household between March and September 2023 (note: these household income estimates reflect income that households reported earning over the past 12 months).

● Year-over-year growth in real household income resumed in October 2023, peaking in June 2024. Since then, both nominal and real median household income growth have consistently slowed for eight consecutive months. With inflation rates still above pre-Covid levels, a nominal income growth of 3.4% in our latest February 2025 data translates into just 0.7% real growth, significantly below the 2015-2019 expansion period average.

In a future post I’ll extend this analysis to household income quartiles, where some revealing recent trends have emerged.

In May 2024, we presented our prediction for the 2023 Census nominal and real household income data, using estimates derived from CPS microdata as predictors. The prediction used the March values from Motio’s nominal, non-seasonally adjusted series as the best approximation of the Census’s previous calendar year values (further rationale can be found in the referenced blog post and in the post introducing the series). The strong correlation between the March nominal values and the Census nominal values is clearly visible in Figure 1.

Following our guiding principles of simplicity and clarity, we ran a simple regression to predict the 2023 Census nominal household income estimate, using Motio’s series as the sole predictor. This exercise yielded an expected nominal increase of 6.7% in U.S. household income for 2023, rising from $74,580 to $79,547. Adjusted for inflation using the Chained Consumer Price Index, we predicted a real increase of 2.6%, from $77,510 to $79,547. As noted in the May blog post presenting the prediction, the anticipated increase “would be the first increase in U.S. real median household income after three consecutive declines from 2020 to 2022.” Figure 2 below shows the predicted versus actual 2023 Census estimates in historical context.

The Census Bureau released the 2023 Median Household Income estimates on September 10, 2024. The report confirmed our prediction of a recovery after three consecutive years of decline: “This is the first statistically significant annual increase in real median household income since 2019.”  Although the magnitude of the recovery was higher than anticipated, with a nominal increase of 8.1% (vs. our predicted 6.7%) and a real increase of 4.0% (vs. our predicted 2.6%), the Census estimates fell within our predicted range. Additionally, the recovery in household income signifies a return to pre-Covid maximum values, which our public index had already indicated in the March 2024 estimate (see Figure 3).

The release of the 2023 Census annual estimates reaffirmed the historically strong association between the Motio and Census household income series, further validating the reliability of Motio’s monthly estimates. This demonstrates that the Motio median household income series stands on its own, offering a timely key metric of U.S. national economic well-being every month.

In this release, we’ll focus on the trajectory of the series after 2020. The real median household income in the U.S. surpassed its pre-Covid peak in March 2024. The significant increase in June 2024 consolidates a sustained recovery that began in June 2023, after months of relative stagnation since early 2021. With a dollar value of $79,090, the U.S. real median household income in June 2024 is 1% higher than the pre-Covid peak value of $78,314 from February 2020.

The real 25^th percentile household income series shows a similar pattern of relative stagnation from early 2021 to mid-2023. Following a plateau below the pre-Covid peak since August 2023, the 25^th percentile series reached its pre-Covid peak value in June 2024, several months later than the median. In short, the 25^th percentile series has shown a weaker performance relative to the median series so far. With a dollar value of $41,127, the U.S. real 25^th percentile household income in June 2024 is virtually identical to the pre-Covid peak value observed in February 2020.

The 75^th percentile series exhibits the strongest recovery among the three. After a comparatively short period of stagnation at relatively low values in 2021, it surged and surpassed the pre-Covid peak value in January 2022. After showing consistent growth over the last four months, it now stands significantly above its pre-Covid peak. With a dollar value of $145,988, the U.S. real 75^th percentile household income in June 2024 is 3.4% higher than the pre-Covid peak value of $141,206, reported in February 2020.

These new series offer, for the first time, the opportunity to keep track of the dynamics of household income distribution in the United States on a monthly basis. We are committed to delivering accurate, timely, and comprehensive data and analysis to provide a thorough understanding of these trends.

The U.S. Census publishes household income estimates for each calendar year in September of the following year (e.g., the estimates for 2023 are expected to be published in September 2024). The Motio household income estimates refer to past 12-month income for household groups with different tenure in the survey (as described in the documentation, here). Therefore, estimates within the first quarter are good candidates to approximate the official annual estimates.

The Motio March estimates, available by mid-April, offer the best approximation of the Census estimates. This series is the best option in terms of (1) covered period; (2) highest correlation among the three first-quarter estimates; and (3) the fact that most of the survey for the Census estimates, the CPS’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), is conducted in March.

The chart below shows the Motio March median household estimates and the annual median household estimates published by the Census. The close relationship between the Motio and Census median household income series demonstrates the validity of the Motio household income estimates as reliable monthly indicators of the economic well-being of U.S. households. It’s worth noting that the largest discrepancy occurred during the historically high inflation of 2022.

The 2023 value for the Census series is our prediction of the value to be published in September 2024. We project the Census nominal median household income to have increased by 6.7% in 2023, from $74,580 in 2022 to $79,547 in 2023, with a lower bound of $78,115 and an upper bound of $80,978.

The forecast of the Census nominal value entails a projected increase of 2.6% in the Census real median household income, from $77,510 in 2022 to $79,547 in 2023 (in 2023 dollars, using the Chained Consumer Price Index). The chart below shows the Census real median household income data, including our projected 2023 value. This would be the first increase in U.S. real median household income after three consecutive declines from 2020 to 2022. The expected 2023 value will be slightly above the value observed in 2020.

In summary, there’s a very strong correlation between the Motio and Census median household income series, which clearly allows for an empirically grounded projection of the Census 2023 values, expected to be published in September of this year.

On December 5, 2023, we officially launched a monthly series of household income data for the United States. This new series is based on microdata from the Current Population Survey and follows the core methodology of a discontinued series that garnered widespread national media attention in the 2010s.

We believe that our monthly series offers a key, timely gauge of the economic well-being of American households. It stands in contrast to the published official estimates, which are reported on a calendar-year basis and suffer from a significant delay between data collection and publication.

Background

In October 2011, the consulting firm Sentier Research, led by two former U.S. Census Bureau officials, began publishing a monthly series of household income data for the United States based on Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata. The CPS is the primary source of labor force statistics for the United States and had not been utilized to produce monthly household income estimates until that time.

For the first time, this new series introduced monthly estimates of U.S. median household income, derived from the pre-tax money income that households report earning in the previous twelve months. In contrast, the official Census estimate of median household income is reported on a calendar-year basis and suffers from a significant delay between data collection and publication, with data for a given calendar year being published in September of the following year.

The novel household income estimates were widely cited by national media outlets and policymakers as an important monthly indicator of the economic well-being of households in the United States (see coverage examples here, here, and here). Sheila Bair, who served as the Chair of FDIC during the Great Recession, notably chose a chart displaying Sentier’s median household income index for The Washington Post as the most significant graph of 2013 (see article). The Sentier series led Bair to conclude in December 2013 that “for a large number of American households, there has been no economic recovery.”

The Sentier income series kept providing valuable information on the monthly trend of U.S. household incomes in the aftermath of the Great Recession and during the ensuing economic recovery, until December 2019. In early 2020, Sentier announced the cessation of its operations due to financial difficulties, resulting in the discontinuation of the series. Since then, a monthly series of U.S. household income exclusively derived from CPS microdata has not been released.

In December 2023, we launched a new series of monthly U.S. household income data, following the core methodology employed by Sentier and incorporating improvements that enhance the series’ stability and predictive performance.

Data and method

Our monthly series of household income data are derived from monthly CPS microdata published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The CPS is a nationally representative survey with a sample size of roughly 60,000 eligible households, covering the noninstitutionalized civilian population.

The official series of annual median household income is calculated using a different data set, a supplement to the CPS called the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). This survey has a current sample size of more than 75,000 households and is designed to capture poverty and income characteristics of the population for the previous calendar year.

The income question included in the monthly CPS asks households to report their total income in the last twelve months, including “money from jobs, net income from business, farm or rent, pensions, dividends, interest, social security payments, and any other money income received” from all household members ages fifteen or older. Respondents are asked to select from sixteen income intervals.

Households included in the CPS are surveyed for eight months in total, spending four consecutive months in the survey since their entrance, being then taken out from the survey for eight consecutive months, and then being reintroduced into the survey for their final four consecutive months. Respondents can be grouped according to their month in the survey, so there are eight groups of roughly similar size of respondents each month.

A key issue for the computation of our monthly household income estimates is that “fresh” household income data is only available in the first and fifth months of the respondent’s tenure in the survey, with the remaining two sets of consecutive months (2, 3, and 4; and 6, 7, and 8) carrying forward the values reported in months 1 and 5, respectively. Fresh household income data thus represents roughly one-fourth of the monthly sample, but we have decided to adhere to Sentier’s approach of utilizing the entire sample, considering the high volatility associated with a series reliant solely on the most current data.

The first step in the computation of our household income series is the imputation of actual income values derived from the sixteen income brackets that households use to report their income over the last twelve months. For the bottom fifteen income intervals, we followed the method used by Sentier, where income values are derived by income bracket following a uniform distribution. For the top bracket, we use a Pareto interpolation, where income values are derived following a standard Pareto distribution.

The inflation adjustment must be performed at the microdata level due to the co-existence of four different months’ worth of past twelve-months income data within each monthly survey. We adjust the household income values using the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CCPI). Household income values are adjusted for inflation according to the household’s month in the survey, using twelve-month averages of the CCPI.

The resulting series are adjusted for seasonality using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software, which is produced, distributed, and maintained by the Census.

The Motio Median Household Income Index

The initial series made available to the public is the Motio U.S. Median Household Income Index (MHII), a median household income index adjusted for inflation and seasonality. An interactive chart of the index is available at motioresearch.com/household-income-series/. The index is updated shortly after both the CPS file and the U.S. Consumer Price Index for the reference month become available, typically in the second to third week of each month subsequent to the reference month.

The MHII begins with a value of 100.0 in January 2010 and reaches a value of 116.3 in March 2024, equivalent to $78,171 (see chart below). The index initially declined, reflecting the lingering impact of the Great Recession until mid-2011. Subsequently, it experienced a prolonged bottom until mid-2012 and then consistently rose until the onset of the Covid pandemic.

The spike and sharp decline in March-October 2020 are primarily attributed to the effect of nonresponse bias in the CPS during the initial months of the pandemic. Nonresponse bias in this case refers to the fact that lower-income households were less likely to respond to the survey (see Ward and Anne Edwards, 2021). We recommend taking the February 2020 value as the peak for 2020 for analytical purposes.

Real median household income declined thereafter and plateaued below the pre-Covid maximum value since early 2021, amid historically high inflation. The index reached a post-Covid minimum value in May 2023 and has shown renewed strength since June 2023. With a value of 116.3 in March 2024, the index has surpassed for the first time the pre-Covid peak of 115.8 observed in February 2020.

In closing, and to reiterate, we believe that tracking monthly household income trends provides a unique vantage point into the evolving economic well-being of American households. Our commitment is to deliver accurate, timely, and comprehensive data and analysis to thoroughly inform this perspective.

References

Ward, Jason M., and Kathryn Anne Edwards. 2021. “CPS Nonresponse During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Explanations, Extent, and Effects.” Labour Economics 72: 102060. doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102060. URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537121000956