The series measures the year-over-year percentage change in the three-month moving average of real median household income. The underlying household-income estimates are not seasonally adjusted and are converted to real values using the not seasonally adjusted CPI-U. Its underlying CPS and CPI inputs are not subject to routine historical revision. We call this measure household-income momentum.

Across this longer historical record, the series shows a clear pattern: sustained positive momentum characterizes household-income expansions, while persistent and sufficiently deep deterioration following a mature expansion preceded the 2001 and 2007–09 U.S. recessions.

The Motio Rule

A U.S. recession warning activates when momentum is negative for two consecutive months and cumulative deterioration reaches at least 0.5 percentage point, following a mature household-income expansion.

A mature expansion is defined as a period of household-income expansion where at least 21 of the most recent 24 momentum readings are nonnegative.

An unconfirmed recession warning is canceled after 12 consecutive nonnegative readings or when momentum returns to or exceeds its prior peak.

The 2001 and 2007 warnings

The first warning was triggered in February 2001, one month before the NBER’s subsequently determined business-cycle peak. Momentum turned negative in January 2001, and a second negative reading in February brought cumulative deterioration to 0.69 percentage point.

Momentum then remained positive for eleven months—one month short of the cancellation requirement. Deterioration resumed in March 2002, and negative momentum persisted for 43 consecutive months.

The second warning was triggered in December 2007, the same month as the NBER’s subsequently determined business-cycle peak. Following the expansion that reached maturity in September 2007, momentum turned negative in November, and the December reading brought cumulative deterioration to 0.82 percentage point. 

A seven-month positive rebound followed, again falling short of the cancellation requirement. Deterioration resumed in August 2008, and negative momentum persisted for 47 consecutive months.

Where things stand now

The post-pandemic household-income recovery has been uneven, but the economy reached a mature household-income expansion in September 2025.

As of June 2026, household-income momentum stood at +1.1 percent. The economy remained in a mature household-income expansion.

June nevertheless brought a sharp loss of momentum. The signal fell from +2.3 percent in May to +1.1 percent in June, the largest one-month decline during a mature expansion in the series to date.

Motio will update the series monthly and report the status of the Motio Rule with each release.

Since launch, Motio’s main public indicator has been the real median household income series: a key timely measure of the economic well-being of U.S. households. That remains our headline series. Beginning with this release, however, we are presenting it in a new way: as a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted monthly estimates.

This change is designed to make the public series easier to interpret. Monthly household income estimates contain valuable information, but they can also be volatile. Rather than encouraging users to overread isolated month-to-month movements, the three-month trailing average provides a clearer view of the dynamics of U.S. median household income.

At the same time, we are expanding the set of public indicators available to public users. In addition to the headline real median household income series, Motio is now introducing public series for:

• nominal median household income;
• year-over-year changes in real and nominal median household income; and
• the ratio between the 75th and 25th percentiles of household income.

Together, these changes mark an important step in the development of Motio’s household income data. They move our public offering beyond a single headline number and toward a broader, clearer, and more useful view of household income conditions in the United States.

Why we are introducing a three-month average

Economic data released at a monthly frequency often involve a tradeoff between timeliness and volatility. Monthly estimates can provide an early signal of changing conditions, but any single monthly value may also reflect temporary noise, sampling variability, or short-lived disruptions.

This is especially true for household income. Household income is shaped by labor market conditions, hours worked, job changes, household composition, inflation, transfers, and other factors. When measured every month using survey data, the series can move in ways that are informative but also uneven.

For that reason, Motio’s public headline series will now be presented as a three-month moving (trailing) average of the underlying seasonally adjusted monthly estimates. The goal is not to make the data less timely. The goal is to make the signal clearer.

The three-month average smooths some month-to-month volatility while preserving the ability to track recent developments. It allows users to focus less on whether household income moved up or down in one particular month and more on the broader pattern: whether income is rising, weakening, or stabilizing; whether momentum is strengthening or fading; and where the current level stands relative to recent history.

In short, the new public headline series is designed to support a more meaningful interpretation of household income: one centered on level, direction, and momentum.

A broader set of public household income indicators

This release also introduces several new public series that complement the headline real median household income measure.

Nominal median household income shows median household income measured in current dollars, before adjusting for inflation. This series helps users distinguish between changes in household income measured in current dollars and changes in inflation-adjusted income.

Year-over-year changes in real and nominal median household income show how household income compares with the same period one year earlier. These measures provide a useful way to track changes over a longer horizon and reduce the risk of placing too much weight on one-month movements.

The 75th/25th percentile ratio provides a simple measure of income dispersion. It compares household income near the upper part of the distribution with household income near the lower part of the distribution. A higher ratio indicates a wider gap between these two points in the distribution, while a lower ratio indicates a narrower gap.

Each of these series adds a different perspective. The real median series remains the headline measure. The nominal median series shows how household income is evolving in current dollars. The year-over-year measures show the pace of change over a 12-month horizon. The 75th/25th percentile ratio offers a window into income dispersion below and above the median.

Together, they provide a more complete public view of household income conditions in the United States.

Updating our seasonal adjustment approach

Behind these public-facing changes, Motio is also updating its seasonal adjustment method.

Seasonal adjustment is a standard statistical procedure used to remove recurring within-year patterns from monthly economic data. Many economic measures vary throughout the year for reasons that are largely seasonal or calendar-related. Removing those recurring patterns makes it easier to interpret changes over time.

Until now, Motio’s seasonally adjusted series relied on an ARIMA-based X-13 seasonal adjustment specification. Beginning with this release, we are using an automatic X-11 seasonal adjustment approach.

This methodological update affects the seasonally adjusted versions of the Motio household income series. It does not change the underlying household income concept, the source data, or the non-seasonally adjusted estimates. It changes the way recurring seasonal patterns are removed from the monthly data.

Importantly, the main story told by the series has not changed. Since 2010, U.S. real median household income shows a recovery from the 2008–09 recession followed by relatively strong growth through 2020. The pandemic period remains clearly visible in the data, and the post-pandemic pattern continues to show a prolonged period of stagnation through mid-2023, a moderate recovery through mid-2024, relative stagnation through early 2025, and faster growth since then. The updated seasonal adjustment approach refines the monthly path of the series, but it does not alter the broad historical interpretation of U.S. real median household income dynamics over this period.

The updated approach gives us a more responsive monthly seasonally adjusted series. That monthly series is analytically valuable, especially for users who want to examine recent movements in more detail. At the same time, greater responsiveness can also mean greater month-to-month volatility.

That is why Motio’s public series will emphasize the three-month trailing average. The underlying monthly seasonally adjusted series provides a timely foundation, while the public three-month average offers a clearer and more stable signal for general interpretation.

A Clearer Public Signal

The purpose of this release is to improve both the statistical foundation and the public presentation of Motio’s household income indicators.

The updated seasonal adjustment approach provides a more responsive monthly foundation. The new public three-month average makes the headline series easier to interpret. The expanded set of public indicators adds context across real income, nominal income, year-over-year changes, and income dispersion.

Together, these changes support a clearer reading of household income conditions in the United States.

The principle is simple: timely data are most useful when the signal is disciplined, comparable, and clear.

Going forward, Motio’s public household income series will place less emphasis on isolated month-to-month movements and more emphasis on the level, direction, and momentum of household income over time.

On August 7, 2025, Stephen Moore, Senior Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, presented monthly household income figures at the White House alongside President Trump (video; charts). Moore described the data as “never seen before,” claimed it came from unpublished Census Bureau sources, and reported that from January through June 2025, real median household income for “the average American family” (sic) had risen by $1,174. He also compared changes in real household income across the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles between the first terms of Presidents Trump and Biden.

The appearance of monthly median household income estimates in such a high-profile political setting highlights both the public interest in timely measures of household economic well-being and the importance of clarity about how such estimates are produced.

Monthly household income estimates are not new — they were first introduced in 2011 by Sentier Research, which demonstrated how Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata could be used to produce robust monthly series. Sentier’s series was widely cited until the firm ceased operations in February 2020. At Motio Research, we have been producing such estimates since December 2023, building on Sentier’s work and incorporating methodological improvements that enhance stability and predictive performance. In this post, I compare our results with those presented at the White House, outline our methodology, and offer context on interpretation, prediction, and transparency.

What the Numbers Show — and What They Don’t

Moore’s reported $1,174 gain appears to represent the difference in real median household income between June 2025 and December 2024. By comparison, our seasonally adjusted, preliminary estimates show a smaller increase of $285 (0.34%), from $83,395 to $83,680. This equals an average monthly growth of 0.06% in early 2025, less than half the 0.16% rate of early 2024. While the growth of real median household income has been relatively weak during President Biden’s administration, the numbers for the first half of 2025 do not show extraordinary gains of the magnitude suggested by Moore’s estimates (see chart below).

Moore did not disclose the source of the data underlying his presentation. In a personal communication on August 11, he stated that his team had developed their own method and intended to release the full details within the following week. While details still remain to be seen, it is clear that his estimates are based on CPS microdata — the same public dataset employed by Sentier in the past and by Motio today.

It is also important to clarify how “monthly” household income estimates should be interpreted. Each estimate reflects household income reported over the prior 12 months, but because of the CPS sample rotation, the data in any given month actually combine four overlapping 12-month reference periods, effectively spanning up to 15 months. They are not measures of income earned within a single month. For example, the June 2025 estimate reflects incomes reported from April 2024 through June 2025. This means that the June 2025 figure still incorporates a substantial portion of income earned during President Biden’s last year in office. Month-to-month changes therefore capture shifts in overlapping twelve-month windows, rather than sudden changes in household finances.

Producing Monthly Household Income Estimates from CPS Microdata

The official U.S. Census Bureau estimates of median household income are published annually in September, covering the previous calendar year. They are based on the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is designed specifically to collect detailed income data.

However, the monthly CPS — the main U.S. labor force survey — also includes a question on total income over the past twelve months, with responses recorded in a set of income intervals rather than exact dollar amounts. This makes it possible to produce valid monthly estimates of annual household income, even though the survey is not designed primarily for this purpose.

The consulting firm Sentier Research, led by two former senior Census Bureau officials, pioneered this approach in 2011, demonstrating that CPS microdata could be used to produce reliable monthly series of median household income. Sentier’s series was widely cited by national media and policymakers until the firm ceased operations in February 2020.

Motio Research builds directly on Sentier’s methodology, adopting its core design while incorporating several improvements that enhance the series’ stability and predictive performance. These improvements include refined income imputation methods, inflation adjustments at the microdata level, systematic benchmarking to Census annual estimates, and seasonal adjustment performed with the Census Bureau’s X-13ARIMA-SEATS program.

Interpreting 2020 — A Statistical Artifact

The chart presented by Moore at the White House included a dashed line in 2020, along with a note clarifying that the anomaly was due to nonresponse bias during the first months of the Covid pandemic. The language in this note is very similar to what we include in our own releases, and the period covered — March through October — is identical. Moore nevertheless disregarded both the dashed line and the accompanying note in his own chart, and treated the 2020 “peak” as though it reflected an actual economic event.

In reality, the sharp rise and fall in household income in 2020 was a statistical artifact caused by nonresponse bias in the CPS: lower-income households were less likely to respond, artificially raising measured median income. This bias is well documented and should be considered when using the series for historical comparisons.

Distributional Estimates and Inequality

As part of his White House presentation, Moore also showed comparisons of real household income at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles between President Trump’s first term and President Biden’s term to date. His charts indicated that gains were larger at all percentiles under Trump, with the 25th percentile showing losses under Biden, the median essentially flat, and the 75th percentile increasing.

While the framing of these results was political, the general patterns in his charts are broadly consistent with what our own percentile series — introduced in June 2024 — has shown. Since their launch, we have documented in press releases and LinkedIn posts that the gap between the 75th and 25th percentiles increased after Covid. The 75th percentile recovered to pre-Covid levels much earlier than the median, while the 25th percentile only reached its pre-Covid peak in mid-2024, lagging behind the broader recovery. And as the chart above shows, median household income has grown more slowly in recent years than during the latter part of President Obama’s second term and the pre-Covid years of President Trump’s first term.

On Prediction

In an interview with The Washington Post, Moore said that his team had “devised a new model to use Census Bureau monthly data surveys to predict future releases of national income data,” and added: “This is going to be a big deal for us because no one else has just figured out how to do this.” Washington Post, August 7, 2025.

As noted earlier, monthly household income estimates have existed since 2011. While Sentier Research pioneered the method, to our knowledge it never used the series to forecast the Census Bureau’s official annual median household income figures. Motio Research began doing so in 2024, publishing our forecasts months ahead of the official release.

In May 2024, we projected a 6.7% increase in nominal median household income for 2023 — corresponding to a 2.6% real gain, the first since 2019. When the Census released its 2023 estimates in September, the official figures fell within our projected range (see blog post). For 2024, we project a 1.6% increase in nominal median household income, which translates into a 1.0% decline in real terms. The Census will release the official 2024 estimates next month.

Why Transparency Matters

Timely indicators of household income are valuable for assessing economic conditions and informing policy debates. When such figures are presented in political contexts, it is essential that their sources and methods are open to scrutiny. Without methodological transparency, it is difficult to evaluate whether differences in reported results reflect real economic changes or differences in data processing.

At Motio Research, our goal is to provide a consistent, reproducible, and transparent measure of monthly household income trends. Detailed methodological documentation and an interactive chart of the Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index are available at motioresearch.com/household-income-series.

Ultimately, what matters is not just the numbers themselves, but the clarity of the methods used to produce them. Household income is too important a measure of economic well-being to be reduced to political talking points. Reliable, transparent estimates allow us to understand how U.S. households are truly faring over time.

The chart below shows, for the first time, year-over-year changes in our monthly median household income estimates that:
1. Include both real and nominal series, and
2. Are not seasonally adjusted.

Key takeaways from the chart:

● After the Great Recession, real median household income resumed growth in 2013, several years following the recession’s official end. This aligns with annual Census estimates, which indicate that real median household incomes began growing again in 2013, after declining from 2008-2011 and stagnating in 2012.

● A period of robust growth in median household incomes began in 2015, driven by accelerated growth in nominal incomes (averaging 3.5% year-over-year in 2015) and historically low inflation. Between 2015 and 2019, nominal and real median household incomes expanded at average annual rates of 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively—a household income boom period.

● Although the Covid pandemic disrupted CPS income data collection between March and October 2020, Census estimates confirm median household incomes declined that year. After the brief Covid recession, median household incomes began recovering sooner than historical patterns would suggest. Nominal household incomes surged in 2022, restoring real income growth. However, historically high inflation soon eroded these gains, leading to monthly year-over-year contractions in real median household between March and September 2023 (note: these household income estimates reflect income that households reported earning over the past 12 months).

● Year-over-year growth in real household income resumed in October 2023, peaking in June 2024. Since then, both nominal and real median household income growth have consistently slowed for eight consecutive months. With inflation rates still above pre-Covid levels, a nominal income growth of 3.4% in our latest February 2025 data translates into just 0.7% real growth, significantly below the 2015-2019 expansion period average.

In a future post I’ll extend this analysis to household income quartiles, where some revealing recent trends have emerged.

In this release, we’ll focus on the trajectory of the series after 2020. The real median household income in the U.S. surpassed its pre-Covid peak in March 2024. The significant increase in June 2024 consolidates a sustained recovery that began in June 2023, after months of relative stagnation since early 2021. With a dollar value of $79,090, the U.S. real median household income in June 2024 is 1% higher than the pre-Covid peak value of $78,314 from February 2020.

The real 25^th percentile household income series shows a similar pattern of relative stagnation from early 2021 to mid-2023. Following a plateau below the pre-Covid peak since August 2023, the 25^th percentile series reached its pre-Covid peak value in June 2024, several months later than the median. In short, the 25^th percentile series has shown a weaker performance relative to the median series so far. With a dollar value of $41,127, the U.S. real 25^th percentile household income in June 2024 is virtually identical to the pre-Covid peak value observed in February 2020.

The 75^th percentile series exhibits the strongest recovery among the three. After a comparatively short period of stagnation at relatively low values in 2021, it surged and surpassed the pre-Covid peak value in January 2022. After showing consistent growth over the last four months, it now stands significantly above its pre-Covid peak. With a dollar value of $145,988, the U.S. real 75^th percentile household income in June 2024 is 3.4% higher than the pre-Covid peak value of $141,206, reported in February 2020.

These new series offer, for the first time, the opportunity to keep track of the dynamics of household income distribution in the United States on a monthly basis. We are committed to delivering accurate, timely, and comprehensive data and analysis to provide a thorough understanding of these trends.