In December 2023, we began publishing a monthly index of U.S. real, seasonally adjusted median household income derived from CPS microdata. Now we’re introducing new estimates based on previously unpublished Motio household income estimates.
The chart below shows, for the first time, year-over-year changes in our monthly median household income estimates that:
1. Include both real and nominal series, and
2. Are not seasonally adjusted.
Key takeaways from the chart:
● After the Great Recession, real median household income resumed growth in 2013, several years following the recession’s official end. This aligns with annual Census estimates, which indicate that real median household incomes began growing again in 2013, after declining from 2008-2011 and stagnating in 2012.
● A period of robust growth in median household incomes began in 2015, driven by accelerated growth in nominal incomes (averaging 3.5% year-over-year in 2015) and historically low inflation. Between 2015 and 2019, nominal and real median household incomes expanded at average annual rates of 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively—a household income boom period.
● Although the Covid pandemic disrupted CPS income data collection between March and October 2020, Census estimates confirm median household incomes declined that year. After the brief Covid recession, median household incomes began recovering sooner than historical patterns would suggest. Nominal household incomes surged in 2022, restoring real income growth. However, historically high inflation soon eroded these gains, leading to monthly year-over-year contractions in real median household between March and September 2023 (note: these household income estimates reflect income that households reported earning over the past 12 months).
● Year-over-year growth in real household income resumed in October 2023, peaking in June 2024. Since then, both nominal and real median household income growth have consistently slowed for eight consecutive months. With inflation rates still above pre-Covid levels, a nominal income growth of 3.4% in our latest February 2025 data translates into just 0.7% real growth, significantly below the 2015-2019 expansion period average.
In a future post I’ll extend this analysis to household income quartiles, where some revealing recent trends have emerged.