The Motio Rule: A New U.S. Recession Warning Indicator
August 11, 2026
Motio Research is introducing a U.S. recession warning indicator based on a new monthly household-income series constructed from Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata.
Motio Research is introducing a U.S. recession warning indicator based on a new monthly household-income series constructed from Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata.
With the release of the April 2026 estimates, Motio Research is introducing an expanded set of public household income indicators, together with an updated approach to seasonal adjustment and public presentation.
On August 7, 2025, Stephen Moore, Senior Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, presented monthly household income figures at the White House alongside President Trump (video; charts). Moore described the data as “never seen before,” claimed it came from unpublished Census Bureau sources, and reported that from January through June 2025, real median household income for “the average American family” (sic) had risen by $1,174.
In December 2023, we began publishing a monthly index of U.S. real, seasonally adjusted median household income derived from CPS microdata. Now we’re introducing new estimates based on previously unpublished Motio household income estimates.
The release of the 2023 Census annual estimates reaffirmed the historically strong association between the Motio and Census household income series, further validating the reliability of Motio’s monthly estimates. This demonstrates that the Motio median household income series stands on its own, offering a timely key metric of U.S. national economic well-being every month.
We’re excited to introduce two new monthly series of U.S. household income estimates that provide a unique monthly gauge of U.S. household income distribution. In December 2023, we launched a monthly series of median household income data. Today, we are launching the 25th and 75th percentiles household income series.